Stock market.......

[atomicbob]

I thought I would pitch in my 2 cents worth, in something I am much better at than FPS.

I should have said this a couple weeks ago, but RUN AWAY!!

I see......wait.....papasan asked me about SIRI up at somewhere around seven bucks and I said, no, it was too high.

Hope you took head dude, since it's 4.50 now and IMAO it's not fixin to improve.

As an investment message board owner, I know that giving an opinion like this can pees someone off , but I assure you I have no alterior motives other than saving/making you money.

The whole market is collapsing and SIRI has no catalyst left, now that Stern in on board. (that said, anyone else that has money in 401K's and stuff, IMO should be moving their retirement cash to money market funds until further notice)

My money left the munies two weeks ago, and had I been handy, I would have shared this opinion then. Sorry.

Exsit stage left. Towards the end of summer should be the right time to start reentering. It may not be the bottom, but it will give you about a 15-20% gain over your current position.

Please don't let the talking heads on TV, talk you out of being afraid of losses.

They are only pumping the market up long enough for them to exit their positions.

When you see a price spike (like today), get out.

My opinion is based only on my experience. If you want to ride out a big downturn like we had in 2000/2001, then by all means hold your holdings.

But, what I would recommend is.....selling on any strength, then waiting a while and picking your stocks/funds up at a lower basis point.

If anyone is interested in my assho opinion, I would be happy to oblige. I've done this a while.

[Mad5cout]

What the hell are you talking about... lol

:slap:


I wish I knew even one thing about investing. I know I should start a 401K/403b now but haven't yet. That's about it.

[GroovyDude]

I thought I would pitch in my 2 cents worth, in something I am much better at than FPS.

I should have said this a couple weeks ago, but RUN AWAY!!

I see......wait.....papasan asked me about SIRI up at somewhere around seven bucks and I said, no, it was too high.

Hope you took head dude, since it's 4.50 now and IMAO it's not fixin to improve.

As an investment message board owner, I know that giving an opinion like this can pees someone off , but I assure you I have no alterior motives other than saving/making you money.

The whole market is collapsing and SIRI has no catalyst left, now that Stern in on board. (that said, anyone else that has money in 401K's and stuff, IMO should be moving their retirement cash to money market funds until further notice)

My money left the munies two weeks ago, and had I been handy, I would have shared this opinion then. Sorry.

Exsit stage left. Towards the end of summer should be the right time to start reentering. It may not be the bottom, but it will give you about a 15-20% gain over your current position.

Please don't let the talking heads on TV, talk you out of being afraid of losses.

They are only pumping the market up long enough for them to exit their positions.

When you see a price spike (like today), get out.

My opinion is based only on my experience. If you want to ride out a big downturn like we had in 2000/2001, then by all means hold your holdings.

But, what I would recommend is.....selling on any strength, then waiting a while and picking your stocks/funds up at a lower basis point.

If anyone is interested in my assho opinion, I would be happy to oblige. I've done this a while.

I had some XM stock which pretty much also went into the toilet. :thumbsdown:

[z3speed4me]

yea but i have a feeling xm isnt comming back from the grave

[atomicbob]

Huh? I was basically saying, last Friday was a good time to exit the market if you had anything in there. It was my belief that Monday and Tuesday was going to be ugly.

Monday the Dow lost 200 points. Today, 50 more.

:dunno:

[atomicbob]

And I reiterate.....SELL OUT!

This market is horrible. Down another hunnert today.

I know most of you aren't interested in it, but the market is like the ultimate strategy video game to me and I've been absorbed by it the past 8 years or so.

So, I'll just share my opinion with anyone who feels like reading it. If it helps you make money, or keeps you from losing it.....that's a bonus.

:flamethrower: *Insert your portfolio here*

[loopcycle]

I know squat about investing other than my 401k but I want to learn.
Any insight about these things are welcome from you Bob.
What I dont understand is how one can "pull out" from a stock-based 401k successfully and continue to plan for the future. My company does a matching plan.

I also dont understand why our government keeps asserting that our "economy is strong" but wall street is wavering like this. I have a feeling we are in for another recession, but way bigger than last time.

BTW Bob, have you ever seen the studies on U.S. market fluctuations over the last 100~ years and how the stock market follows predictable patterns that repeat over time? Like small fluctuations on the rising edge, followed by several recessions and a major crash? I think we've been through that cycle at least three times if I remember right. I wonder if this is part of that larger crash cycle. I have to go find that chart and analysis again...it was at least a few years ago.

[atomicbob]

Loop, you might check and see if your 401K program has a money market fund you can move your investment into. Most of my 401K was in an international/emerging market fund up until a month ago.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=fadix&sid=0&o_symb=fadix

I traded out of that and into a money market fund that pays about 3.5% and am really glad about that right now.

IMO, what we're seeing right now is due to a couple of factors.

First, the global economy has been booming. China, Brazil, Russia, India, etc, have been expanding rapidly. The trickle down effect of this has been rising commodity prices. Steel, copper, and everything else used to build anything recently reached all time highs. That leads to inflation, and that's bad for stocks because the fed will try and control that by raising interest rates.

We have a new fed chairman that nobody understands. The fed rate has been going up a quarter point per quarter for a couple of years. Now this new guy has come out with statements that would indicate no pause in this pattern of increases. Long story short, people think that inflation is imminent and and economic slow down is looming. Bad time to own stocks.

So people, like me, move their money out of equities, stock funds, hedge funds, etc. and into bonds a money markets for safety. That causes the market to dip, which leads to further selling pressure. Huge amounts of money being managed by the monster funds have to be moved because everyone starts seeing crappy returns and put in sell orders.

You would think that the good companies with solid growth would be immune to this selling pressure, but in reality, the fund managers, who get paid mega bucks to make people money (They typically get about 1% of the total cash they are managing, which can be billions) start selling off their winners to get good numbers. So then the great companies go down as well and the whole cycle continues.

You have to remember, stocks are not companies. They are only pieces of paper that only have value if someone thinks that by owning it they can sell it to someone else later at a higher price. When they start thinking they need to sell it NOW, at any price, you get a bear market cycle.

Anyway, that's kind of rambling, yet only scratching the surface. The equity markets are complicated and everything matters.

Mostly right now, it's every man for himself. Cash is king right now because return on investment in the market looks like it will be far worse than the 4 or 5% you can get in a CD.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=djia&sid=1643&o_symb=djia&freq=1&time=8

Bombs away.

[loopcycle]

Here's where I'm at right now:

Stock Investments:
LARGE CAP
HARBOR CAP APPR INST 7%
SPTN US EQ IND ADVAN 35%
MID-CAP
SPTN EXTND MKT INDEX 35%
BGI EAFE EQUITY INDX 23%


I know this is high risk.
If you had your pick Bob, which of these following options are safest?

LARGE CAP
------------
DOMINI SOCIAL EQUITY %
FID CONTRAFUND %
FID GROWTH & INCOME %
FIDELITY MAGELLAN %
HARBOR CAP APPR INST %
ICAP EQ PORTFOLIO %
SPTN US EQ IND ADVAN %

MID-CAP
--------
FIDELITY LOW PR STK %
SPTN EXTND MKT INDEX %

SMALL CAP
-----------
GS SM CAP VALUE INST %

INTERNATIONAL
---------------
TEMPLETON FOREIGN A %
BGI EAFE EQUITY INDX %
OLDMUT EMRG GRTH IS %

Blended Fund Investments*
FID FREEDOM 2000 %
FID FREEDOM 2005 %
FID FREEDOM 2010 %
FID FREEDOM 2015 %
FID FREEDOM 2020 %
FID FREEDOM 2025 %
FID FREEDOM 2030 %
FID FREEDOM 2035 %
FID FREEDOM 2040 %
FID FREEDOM INCOME %

Bond Investments
(INCOME)
PIM TOTAL RT INST %
BGI US DEBT INDEX %
SSGA TIPS FUND %
STABLE VALUE FUND

[atomicbob]

Disclaimer.....I have not become a millionaire in the stock market and am not claiming to be Warren Buffet Jr.

Any opinions I give are simply that. A reasonably informed opinion, but an opinion none the less.

You have to remember that if you play the stock market video game, you are playing against the richest, smartest, most powerful super geniouses on Earth. They desire nothing more than to take your money, hance winning the game, and they are very, very good at it.

[loopcycle]

I understand. I would take your opinion as a starting point for my own hack research (as I do with almost anybody's opinion).

EDIT: I'm doing some research at personal.fidelity.com now BTW.

[loopcycle]

I think this is probably what we have that is closest:

---------------------------------------------
Deutsche Asset Management Stable Value Fund

What it is
A fixed income fund (not a mutual fund) that maintains a stable principal value.

Goal
Seeks to provide a relatively stable rate of interest income while maintaining a stable principal value. Objective is to achieve returns that over time exceed the returns on bank savings accounts and money market funds.
---------------------------------------------

[atomicbob]

Here's where I'm at right now:

Stock Investments:
LARGE CAP
HARBOR CAP APPR INST 7%
SPTN US EQ IND ADVAN 35%
MID-CAP
SPTN EXTND MKT INDEX 35%
BGI EAFE EQUITY INDX 23%


I know this is high risk.
If you had your pick Bob, which of these following options are safest?

LARGE CAP
------------
DOMINI SOCIAL EQUITY %
FID CONTRAFUND %
FID GROWTH & INCOME %
FIDELITY MAGELLAN %
HARBOR CAP APPR INST %
ICAP EQ PORTFOLIO %
SPTN US EQ IND ADVAN %

MID-CAP
--------
FIDELITY LOW PR STK %
SPTN EXTND MKT INDEX %

SMALL CAP
-----------
GS SM CAP VALUE INST %

INTERNATIONAL
---------------
TEMPLETON FOREIGN A %
BGI EAFE EQUITY INDX %
OLDMUT EMRG GRTH IS %

Blended Fund Investments*
FID FREEDOM 2000 %
FID FREEDOM 2005 %
FID FREEDOM 2010 %
FID FREEDOM 2015 %
FID FREEDOM 2020 %
FID FREEDOM 2025 %
FID FREEDOM 2030 %
FID FREEDOM 2035 %
FID FREEDOM 2040 %
FID FREEDOM INCOME %

Bond Investments
(INCOME)
PIM TOTAL RT INST %
BGI US DEBT INDEX %
SSGA TIPS FUND %
STABLE VALUE FUND

Any of those bond funds are pretty safe in a bear market. All of the equity funds above, whether value based or not, will have huge exposure to the S&P and will be taken down with it if it continued to fall. Today it bounced off a key support level and is about back to even, but that may just be short covering by the hedge funds and people trying to catch a bottom. I think we'll see a little rally for the next couple of days, and then more selling off. JMHO

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=%24spx&sid=0&o_symb=%24spx&freq=1&time=8

[atomicbob]

Let me add this too, because its really important to know what my goal is when I move my retirement funds around.

This is not like stock trading. I do that too, but not with my retirement. I do that for speculation with way less important money.

My goal with moving in and out of funds is simply to outperform the fund manager. Funds are good and keep your money diversified enough that you don't want to over manage them.

I may start moving back into some equity funds soon, but in increments as the market goes down. It takes a lot of luck to call market tops and bottoms, but it's not that tough to pick up 5% over what your favorite funds will do if you just buy and hold year round.

For example, I jumped out of my FADIX at 23.50 a share. It went up to 24.50 before the market started to tank, but is now at 21.00

So, if I buy back here and hold the rest of the year, I will have gained 2.50 a share more than the fund as a whole. That's beating the fund manager by 10%!! Kick ass!!

Keep in mind that Fidelity limits how many round trips you can make in the same fund. (at least that how they are set up at mine.) You can sell as often as you like, but you can't sell and reenter the same fund more than two times in any 90 period. They consider you a disruptive trader if you do that and will send you a warning letter. (I've been warned.:yaya: )

So, if you choose to do this, pick your spots and don't swing for the fences. Just try and capture some of the major market moves and beat your fund manager. He can't move his huge volume of cash as easy as you, so it's not that hard to kick his butt.

:clap:

[atomicbob]

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at a four-month low Friday in a week where the market succumbed to heavy losses on concerns over inflation, rising global interest rates and slowing economic growth. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell for a sixth straight session to end at a more than seven-month low. The Dow industrials fell 47 points to an unofficial close of 10,891. On the week, the benchmark index tumbled 3.2%. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 10 points at 2,135 and the S&P 500 Index dropped 6 points to 1,252. On the week, the Nasdaq fell 3.8% while the S&P 500 was off about 2.8%. http://i.mktw.net/mw3/News/greendot.gif

:eyecrazy:

[atomicbob]

What's a couple more percent decline?

http://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/students/organizations/follies/media/EveryBreath.wmv

(Link to funny video about the Fed Chairman.)

[atomicbob]

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Asian shares took a dive on Tuesday, with Japan's Nikkei staging its biggest point decline in more than four and half years.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average ended down 614.41 points, or 4.1%, at 14,218.60. The more-inclusive Topix index fell 3.5% to end the day at 1,458.30.

The drop marks the benchmark index's biggest point decline since Sept. 12, 2001, which was the first day of Japanese trading following the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington.

[sir_digalot]

there has been an upswing in the maount of options traded recently, at least where i work, a few i feel are covering their positions and hoping for the best, most of the calls we get these days are irate people because they are trying to get rid of something and they have buggered up their computer and it will not go through.

for a year now i have stared blankly at the screens we have on our machines, and read lots on the subject, and still know feck all about the damn market, i can barely make out whats going on let alone trends and stuff... the funny thing is that alot of the traders who are in our compnay barely know any more then me, they just got their licences thats all...

[atomicbob]

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks ended lower in volatile trade Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average wiping out its gains for the year, on concern a combination of higher inflation, rising interest rates and slowing economic growth will hurt corporate profits going forward.

The Nasdaq Composite fell for an eighth session in a row, the second time in a month it has logged an eight-session losing streak.

:crap:

[loopcycle]

thats a bitch.
i would have been a lot better off moving last week, but im moved now.
hopefully this aint the bottom, or ill have to move again real quick.

[atomicbob]

It's not the bottom, in my opinion.

Tech has a long way to sell off, and so does emerging markets and commodities. All the speculation has to get wrung out and then things might look cheap again. Not "Cheaper than last month", but cheaper than 12 months ago. Tons of profit will have to get taken out before this market finds a bottom.

For what it's worth, I'll let you know when I jump back in. It could be an ugly summer.

But again, if you are shooting for a simple goal, like beating your fund manager by 10% or something (And hence your coworkers results) then it's not that hard. At the end of the year when you all compare your results, they might be like, "I'm down 30%! waaaa", and you can say, "I'm only down 20% cause I didn't stare at a crap market like a deer in the headlights. Likewise, if they are up 15%, you're up 25%.

These numbers are hypothetical, but I truly believe you are not too late in this bear to get a much more leveraged position on reentry. There is not panic in the streets yet, but it is a very skiddish market.

I stream dozens of key stocks in a wide range of sectors all day, every day. I see what looks like a little rally start? And shortly after the sellers pile in and it tanks again.

Oil prices went way down today, oil being one of the key "excuses" the market was taking a beating for the past couple weeks. What happened? Did the market rise on the news? No. The oil stocks sold off, but the other issues also sold lower. Not good.

It's really stinky.

But if you are cash, things are only getting cheaper every day and the potential for profit is higher. Better to watch.

[atomicbob]

We could see a bounce from down here, the technicals sure look like it.

If I had a photoshop or something I'd create a chart or two that say things may be a buy. However, like last week, I don't think it is sustainable right now and would likely only head fake you into buying back early.

3 year Nasdaq, looks like a buying opportunity assuming the world economy is going to keep ripping along like mad. The uptrend is intact.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=nasdaq&sid=3291&o_symb=nasdaq&freq=2&time=10

10 year nasdaq? Looks like a dead horse about to fall on it's face. I actually think it will test the 1750 level in the coming months. We'll see. That's my bet, anyways.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=nasdaq&sid=3291&o_symb=nasdaq&freq=2&time=13

[CrockD]

These numbers are hypothetical, but I truly believe you are not too late in this bear to get a much more leveraged position on reentry. There is not panic in the streets yet, but it is a very skiddish market.



A bear market is generally defined as a 25-40% fall in a 6 to 9 month period. So far the market has fallen about 10% so I think it's a little premature to call this a bear market. I do think it could continue to fall for up to a month more before it spends the next several months treading water. If you can afford the transaction costs involved in moving your investments around by all means move into something safer, but I wouldn't push the panic buttons just yet.

I would be careful about investing in bonds though. While they have been benefitting from the drop in equities lately, I would hate to get caught holding them if the Fed decides to continue raising rates (which seems likely for at least the next two fed meetings). Increasing rates will cause bond values to fall. If you are really spooked then Bob's suggestion to put your money into money market funds is a good one, you'll avoid the interest rate risk while waiting out this current downturn.

My $0.02...well $0.0175, I had too much of it in SPX. :)

[atomicbob]

Right Crock. I consider bond fund "safer" than Equities, but not as safe as money market.

You're right, this is a little early to be a bear market in the full sense of the word, but I'm calling it anyway.

If we are to bounce, it should be about here. The market is very oversold. The Nasdaq has been down 8 days straight. The last time it went down 9 days in a row was 1984.

Anyway, in my spare time I look at technicals and here is what I see in the S&P.

There are other support levels horizontally that I didn't show.

http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b393/atomicbob/SPX2YR.jpg

[atomicbob]

Some individual stocks are getting punished. Check out these two.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=ers&sid=0&o_symb=ers&freq=1&time=8

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=cell&sid=0&o_symb=cell&freq=1&time=8

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=stxn&sid=0&o_symb=stxn&freq=1&time=8

Ouch

[CrockD]

The market is having an interesting morning. CPI was higher than expected which you would expect to create one of those dreaded situations where both bonds and stocks get beaten up on the same day, but instead equities are up half a percent.

[atomicbob]

People are wanting a bottom really bad. I was looking at a few stocks (above) myself for at least a bounce.

RALLY CAPS ON!!??

:D

[CrockD]

There's definitely no overhwhelming rally going on, but I think we're seeing a positive effect from increased certainty. Bernanke's comments lately have been perplexing and that's never good for markets. Even though todays news was bad the market now knows which way the fed will go and doesn't have to worry about a flip-flopping chairman for a few weeks.

[atomicbob]

Crock, I never noticed your profession before.

AB -> :bow: :hump: <- Crock

:D

[CrockD]

Crock, I never noticed your profession before.

AB -> :bow: :hump: <- Crock

:D

Hahaha, that's funny.

I may do investment management for a living (I'm currently doing the job of an index manager but that'll be changing soon), but your insights into short-medium term market technicals and fundamentals are very well thought out. Your point on commodities prices is spot on. We simply can't get a good rally going because commodities prices are putting a cap on it. If they continue to rise then we're going to see inflation, if we see inflation then we're going to see higher interest rates and if we see higher interest rates we're going to see lower growth.

I think the markets will stabalize but certainly don't look for a big rebound once things have levelled off. We could be stuck in the doldrums for a while.

[atomicbob]

How about this. You promise to keep them from irrationally selling madly for no good reason, and I'll try and get them to beat their fund manager by 10% a year.

:lol:

[CrockD]

Deal.

Wow, I turned my back for 20 minutes when the market closed and suddenly we had a rally. That's a nice refreshing end to the day.

[atomicbob]

It almost HAD to bounce today.

[loopcycle]

what does "bounce" mean, exactly?

[atomicbob]

Well, after a big selloff, you have two things that can (WILL) happen.

One, people start to think they are seeing cheap stocks. So they buy some. 2nd, you have people who have sold short, and they now are sitting on profits, so they buy to cover.

More buyers than sellers. That makes a bounce. A bounce being an upward move in a chart that is going down.

At some point, a bounce is the beginning of an uptrend, or a continuation of an uptrend. That's if buying continues and it holds up.

Often though, a bounce is very short term and any upward move is met by sellers just looking for a good place to exit a position.

For example, say I have shares of XYZ stock, and I watch it go from 100 to 80 in the past two weeks. I'm freakin out looking at my account balance yesterday. Now today, it might have bounced up to 85. My account is still bleeding, but it's damn sure better than yesterday. Do I want to see my yesterday balance again Friday, or do I want to take these couple percent before they disappear?

Exit...stage right.

If there are more sellers doing this than people thinking it's cheap, the bounce will fail and the downturn will reappear.

A lot of times, short term traders (like me) will wait til a day like today to buy in anticipation of a bounce, then take that few % gain on the bounce and dump the shares in one or two days. Again, more selling.

[atomicbob]

BTW, It wasn't much of a bounce but it was better than a sharp stick in the eye.

[p00p]

So uhm which of you guys should I give my money to when I actually think about investing once I get out of college (see age 32)? :)

[GroovyDude]

I'm hurtin' bad.on my stocks :thumbsdown: Doing great on my money market. :thumbsup:

[atomicbob]

I want to say this....the chart I posted this morning COULD indicate a buying opportunity on a normal price correction, in a good market.

That's been the case for a couple years. Big pull back, oscillators down to the bottom. Big comeback. Buy the pain and make moola!

I'm not a hired investment advisor (Got to put that disclaimor in there now that one is right here), but, IMAO, this ain't gonna be like a pullback the past two years where you can make money by buying the dip.

This is different.

The risk/reward is low.

What is the upside in the S&P in a tightening economy? 5%? 10%?

What's the downside risk?

40%? 60%?

That's crap odds when a CD will pay you near 5% on no risk.....

IMO, THAT'S! why people are fleeing.

Easy no risk cash to be had.

If anything, we are seeing a selling off of all, not most, of the speculative plays, and a move of cash into the defensive plays that aren't as impacted by inflation worries or a selloff. A rush to quality is what they label it.

What happens in the speculative plays, and Crock can correct me if I'm wrong, is there starts out being some selling, a market "correction", then all a sudden, you get margin calls on the people who have bought shares on borrowed cash (margin) and those plays go crashing down, causing more margin calls, and perpetuation of the dwon cycle in that speculative play....

A short tutorial on this.

Say I have a margin account, which I do. Say I have $10k in my account.

I like XYZ stock and I want to buy some.

I invest my whole $10k in that stock at $50.

Say it goes to $60 and I love it. I "know" it's fixing to go to $80 and and want some more!

Ok! A margin account will let you play with borrowed money up to 100% of your account value! WTF?

OK! I'm in for another $10k at $60!

It goes to $70, and now I have $20k in play and looking at all kinds of green and "profits" and sheeit. I'm all happy cause I just know I'm right and will retire on this.

Then the market turns. The share price goes back to $55.

Ok, I'm ok. But I'm just back to even. Half at cash at $50 and half borrowed at $60.

Market sells again. Now it's $50!

Oh crap!

I'm down on my loan!

What happens here, if you don't have enough collateral in your account to cover your loan, is a margin call.

Someone will let you know that if you don't cover your loss by like 1:30 pm est, they will liquidate your positions for you until the margin is covered.

Sorry this is long, but I have nothing else to do, and some people might want to know.

So NOW! They start selling your shares at any price "for YOU". The stock price continues down in a huge way as margin calls eat up every buyer on the sidelines. No one wants this POS in this kind of slide. Even the cash players bail to try and conserve what cash they have left. This can and will snowball until every "gambler" is washed out of the stock. You will see it if you watch. One by one, speculative stocks just get crushed.

IMO this is not done yet.

That said.....

Value plays support themselves to some extent because they have a lot of cash and will buy back their own shares to keep from getting crushed. That supports the share price and puts a bottom on the losses.

Since mostly we are addressing mutual fund people here, short of a money market fund, a value fund should hold up best. I have to assume you have no hedge fund options at your company. LOL

Ok, a hedge fund is one that can "sell short", or play "options", if they feel like it and are untethered by most mutual fund guidelines. You give them your money, pay exhorbinate fees and let them play the market for you.

Most 401k's do not have this option. For good reason.

ahhhhh........

I could post about stocks and markets for like 8 years......

But I'm kinda tired.

Like this market IMO.

The good news IMO is that stocks are getting cheaper by the day and before you know it, they will be worth buying. The potential reward will outweigh the risk.

But not now.

Buy a CD.

:mgfaint:

Disclaimer......

I could be wrong.

But, I have personally moved my 401k into a money market account and plan on letting it sit there until further notice. In addition, I have reduced my 401K payroll deduction from 15% to 10% and am putting that 5% into 6 month CD's. If I'm wrong and my take is sheeit, and you decide to follow my tips, my funds will go down with yours.

My point being, I believe I am doing the right thing.

Crock will certainly have something to weigh in about, and I will not take offense, or try and steer anyone from what a professional recommends you do.

I only plays em as I sees em.

[atomicbob]

dang, that was a long post, even compared to long posts.

:slap:

[CrockD]

Nice post bob. I'll comment on it a little later, got a hectic day going on a the moment. (Plus nothing will stop me from watching England v Trinidad & Tobego at noon)

Market's up nicely this morning!

Crock

[atomicbob]

Excerpt from Barron's

MONDAY, JUNE 19, 2006
BARRON'S COVER

Second-Half Outlook
High Anxiety
By LAUREN R. RUBLIN
R-I-S-K. THAT SIMPLE FOUR-LETTER WORD is fine for family magazines, but it's a dirty word of late where investments are concerned. With interest rates rising, economies cooling and the U.S. consumer in danger of falling down on the job, investors en masse decided in recent weeks they've had enough of risk, defined as any asset whose price can fall as well as rally. So they've thrown 'em all overboard: U.S. stocks and bonds, emerging-market equities, gold, commodities, the whole lot. Even after last week's lovely rebound, U.S. stocks have given up just about all their gains for the year.
What happens next? We're glad you asked. And who better to supply the answer than the members of the Barron's Roundtable? Our midyear update features the investment insights -- and specific stock picks -- of the same 12 market luminaries who grace our annual Roundtable, which last convened Jan. 9. For "The Midyear," as we call it, we rang up each and every one, dutifully recording their divergent views of the economy, the stock market and the Federal Reserve's new man on the spot, Ben Bernanke. On one thing, however, our experts all agree: The shares of many good companies haven't been this cheap in ages.
Consider this your survival guide to the next six months and beyond. Read it, and keep.
ART SAMBERG
Art, is the market doomed?
Samberg: It's going to be ugly until a clear macro environment emerges -- that is, until Mr. Bernanke has enough hard data on what's going on to make clear what he should do next. I recently met him, and there is nothing unclear about this man. People are confusing his clarity with their uncertainty. Bernanke is focused on the risk of long-term inflation. You can measure the fact that steel prices are back up to $650 a ton, world growth is continuing and energy prices are staying sticky high. Bernanke is a very data-driven man, and he's looking at tons of data on the housing market, 10 or 15 different indicators. The rest of us can have flights of fancy about what's going on, but he's handling this as a serious policy-maker should. He's not going to ease until the data say the housing market and economy are weak. Could he do it wrong? Sure, but to say he's unclear about what he's doing is nonsense. Until the data show clarity, we're going to have one cruddy market.
It already is cruddy, Thursday's stampede excepted.
The only people doing well were those who had made bets in areas benefiting from global growth, which is now being called into question because of U.S. monetary policy and foreign central banks' draining of liquidity. People who had bravely stayed in the leaders have seen their year disappear, and now they're into risk control. They're selling the very stocks that helped make them. As a result, the weakest stocks have the best fundamentals.
That's good news for people with cash to spend.
You got it. I'd like to re-emphasize Foster Wheeler, which I recommended in January. This is an architectural-engineering company that makes steam boilers and similar stuff. Business is the best it's been in 30 years, and prices are going up. Anybody focused on supplying capital equipment for an area of the economy that has been starved for 30 years is doing extremely well. There is a shortage of engineers and capacity, and the stars are lined up. Yet, the stock is down.
Any particular reason?
More sellers than buyers. Hedge funds are trying to get flat. The stock is owned by a bunch of us, and everybody's in risk-reduction mode. It is relatively thinly traded and it just got puked. It's a good time to buy it.
I also like ABB, which is in power and architectural engineering. They're all over the world. They have a 40% to 50% market share in their businesses, especially in transmission and distribution. The developing world needs this stuff, but the U.S. also is underinvested in electrical-power infrastructure. The company thinks the U.S. market could grow from $5 billion to $10 billion over the next few years. ABB could earn about 80 cents this year, and the stock sells for 11. Next year it could do a little over $1, and as much as $1.50 in 2008. All these companies had trouble in the 1990s because nobody spent on power and infrastructure. Foster Wheeler and ABB both did stupid things. They bought a bunch of non-core businesses they later had to get rid of. So they're turnaround stories with ballistic demand.

[atomicbob]

That wasn't posting well.

Here's the rest in more readable form.

http://www.atomicbobs.com/index.php?mode=read&id=96568

[atomicbob]

In a bizarre marriage, Nestle is buying Jenny Craig.

http://theedge.bostonherald.com/lifeNews/view.bg?articleid=144508

:lol: :lol:

[atomicbob]

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. leading economic indicators fell 0.6% in May, suggesting that the economy is likely to grow at a "slow to moderate' pace in the near term, the Conference Board said Thursday.

Economists were expecting the index to decline 0.4%, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch.

The leading index fell 0.1% in April, and has fallen in three of the past four months. It's down 0.2% over the past six months, with half of the 10 indicators showing weakness.

The index is designed to help forecast turning points in the economy six to nine months ahead.

"The current behavior of the leading index so far suggests that the rapid pace of economic activity in the first quarter is unlikely to be sustained and economic growth should continue, but at a slow to moderate rate in the near term," the Conference Board said.

The cumulative impact of higher energy prices, a slowing housing market, higher interest rates, lower confidence and even higher taxes in some regions have combined to slow the economy, said Ken Goldstein, labor economist at the private research institution. "Given the slower pace, the economy has less ability to absorb another round of strong hurricanes this summer."

Seven of 10 leading indicators were negative in May, the board said. The biggest negative contributors were weekly jobless claims, consumer expectations and money supply. Other negatives were factory work hours, building permits, stock prices and vendor performance.

Three indicators were positive: core capital goods orders, consumer goods orders and the interest rate spread.

In May, the coincident index rose 0.1%. The lagging index rose 0.2%. http://i.mktw.net/mw3/News/greendot.gif

[CrockD]

The markets taking a beating today. The rally caused by Bob spending all his money in Vegas has finally come to and end.:yaya:

[atomicbob]

Today will be even worse.

Except for BUD.

I support BUD.

:lol:

[CrockD]

Today will be even worse.

Except for BUD.

I support BUD.

:lol:

What a shock, a company that makes beer, under the name of "And hows your bush" has price support from Bob.

Well at least we know where the flight to safety's going.

[CrockD]

We're getting killed today..and it's only going ot get worse as the day goes on.

[atomicbob]

Pepsi has been kicking butt, too.

Pretty hard to find a safe spot.

I can't even find a good swing trade.

I was checking out Leap Wireless. (Cricket phone) They've been doing really well considering the crap market.

I owned their stock back in the day.....and they went BK on me. My shares went to zero. That sucked. What's worse is then they come out of BK and sell new shares. I'll never understand how that is allowed to happen since basically they are selling the same company twice. Kmart did that BS too.

A big thumbs down to that rule.

:thumbsdown:

[CrockD]

Pepsi has been kicking butt, too.

Pretty hard to find a safe spot.

I can't even find a good swing trade.

I was checking out Leap Wireless. (Cricket phone) They've been doing really well considering the crap market.

I owned their stock back in the day.....and they went BK on me. My shares went to zero. That sucked. What's worse is then they come out of BK and sell new shares. I'll never understand how that is allowed to happen since basically they are selling the same company twice. Kmart did that BS too.

A big thumbs down to that rule.

:thumbsdown:

Ahhh bankruptcy laws, could there be a better textbook illustration of the economic phrase "Moral Hazard". If you really want to try to make some money in this market you could try two things. Buy energy stocks or short techs. Just in case this gets picked up by my works firewall. You do this at your own risk! :)

[atomicbob]

I love a good disclaimer.

:yaya:

Some utilities are doing ok. I think people are looking for dividend plays since bond yields are tanking. But that's a bit out of my area.

[CrockD]

I work in a bond shop, but my area of expertise is not bonds (yet) as I am one of the only equity guys here. Overall the yield on some bonds is beginning to look very attractive. Especially short term bonds.

[atomicbob]

Shows how much I know about bonds. :bow:

[CrockD]

Shows how much I know about bonds. :bow:

You're not wrong when it comes to the last couple weeks. The stock sell-off has meant that bond prices have been rising and therefore yields falling. Overall though the yield on the ten year is 5.10% and the yield on shorter term bonds is even higher than that. Objectively speaking that's not exactly rocking my socks off, but given the risk in the current equity market that's not a bad return to make for very little risk.

[atomicbob]

Did you hear about the new ETF's available for shorting the indexes? They came out today.

You can buy QID, and it moves double the inverse of the Nazdaq.

So if it NAZ goes down 2%, QID goes up 4% and vice versa.

The DOW 30 is DXD, the S&P is SDS.

That's a pretty cool tool for shorting.

[atomicbob]

Bombs away again......no catalysts for a move to the upside.

:thumbsdown:

[CrockD]

Bombs away again......no catalysts for a move to the upside.

:thumbsdown:

Markets flat at the moment which seems to indicate that it has internalized the shock of Israel's unexpected offensive. If the bombing continues at the same pace as yesterday I would expect the market to not be too affected by it. The potential upside is that if Israel agrees to a ceasefire today then the market should see a moderate swing upwards.

Maybe the only brightside to this Bob is that now might be a time to see if you can find some bargains. Or time to buy stocks in weapons contractors.:mp5:

[CrockD]

Bush just gave tacit support for the bombings and Dow flopped 40 more points. :( If there's going to be any good news today it's going to have come from the Israeli side of things.

[CrockD]

Make that 60 points.

EDIT: Oil is now 85 cents from hitting $80 for the first time. Up almost $7 this week alone.

2nd EDIT: Make that 80 points.

[atomicbob]

I'm thinking we have a bad summer, then if nothing major happens, and the FED stops with their next hike, we could have a fall rally. Not sure how long that will last or how high it will go, but there should be some cachinga to made when the shorts start to cash in.

Stuff will definately be on sale by then.

There are some support levels on the way down that could spark some buying as well.

(insert disclaimer here)

[CrockD]

This is why we issue disclaimers.


If the bombing continues at the same pace as yesterday I would expect the market to not be too affected by it.

Markets down 100 at the moment....ooops.

[loopcycle]

thanks for the updates guys. im still watching.

[atomicbob]

Producer price up 0.8% yesterday was crappy news for inflation worries, not home builders sentiment drops to 15 year low.

Not pretty.

[atomicbob]

Market seems to like this.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Fed chief Ben Bernanke kept all options on the table Wednesday, telling Congress that monetary policy must be flexible as the economy is in a state of transition. Bernanke's testimony included portions that could be construed as either hawkish or dovish. He said inflation risks remained and the central bank was concerned about rising prices. But he said the economy was likely to slow and this should ease inflation pressures. He also said the full impact of past rate hikes have yet to hit the economy. The formal testimony fits with the rough consensus of economists who had thought that Bernanke would try to preserve the Fed's flexibility to either continue to hike rates or pause in August, depending on the central bank's interpretation of the latest economic data.

[CrockD]

Yay! We got a bounce. Lets see if it lasts the day. I do think Bernanke's words were reassuring.


Allow me to rant about my worries on the fed and inflation: :rant:

My main problem with constantly raising rates to fight inflation in this instance is that inflation is being caused by one factor, oil.

Interest rates affect the amount of credit that is circulating in the economy and therefore the "pace" of the economy. If you put them too low then there will be too many people borrowing and spending frivolously and too many businesses making investments that are not entirely sound, the overall effect is to overheat the economy and create inflation. Raising interest rates curbs spending, encourages savings and therefore decreases inflation. The problem is that we are not experiencing inflation as a result of too much credit in the economy, but because the most major input factor in our economy has seen a massive price rise: oil.

Raising rates will encourage people to save money and therefore will decrease a small amount of the demand for oil. It will also lower non-energy forms of inflation which makes the overall inflation numbers for the economy look better, but it's not going to stop the price of oil from going up. Continually raising rates just because the oil price is high is like cutting off your nose to spite your face. We'll see how things go...

[atomicbob]

Yep. I'm betting this is just a short covering rally. And that we won't get past the 50 EMA before it continues it's downtrend.

A slowing economy is not good for stock prices, no matter what's causing it.

Bernanke is such a pawn (spell that "tool").

[atomicbob]

Yahoo is $ 8.7 billion dollars cheaper than it was yesterday.

ouch

[CrockD]

Yahoo is $ 8.7 billion dollars cheaper than it was yesterday.

ouch

The search engines had been so heavilly over-valued it was no surprise that once one of them showed signs of weakness (Yahoo's earnings report yesterday) it was going to get a beating. The big one to watch will be after the close on Thursday. That's when Google makes their earnings announcement. Was Yahoo's disappointment Google's gain, or is this a sector wide phenomena?

[atomicbob]

I don't know but as long as Google keeps sending my check every month, I'm good.

:lol:

Got to love them ad clickers.

:thumbsup:

[CrockD]

Up 220...holy moly!:mghyper:

[atomicbob]

It is kickin butt (so far). Not impressive volume though.

[CrockD]

No end of day dip which is great. We finished up 212.19

[atomicbob]

Intel's earning blew after the close. Ebay's were marginal. Apple is supposed to be today too. Haven't seen it yet.

JP Morgan did real good.

Dang bankers. They make all the money.

[atomicbob]

Holy smokes! AAPL shipped 8.1 million I-pods this quarter. Huge caching!

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BE371860C%2DAC68%2D4A8F%2D91BA%2 D7A28B53F7E83%7D&siteid=

That's like 1 per second for three straight months.

[CrockD]

Holy smokes! AAPL shipped 8.1 million I-pods this quarter. Huge caching!

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BE371860C%2DAC68%2D4A8F%2D91BA%2 D7A28B53F7E83%7D&siteid=

That's like 1 per second for three straight months.

And as a result Apple's up 7% in after hours trading.

[atomicbob]

Motorola shipped 51.9 million wireless-phone handsets, another quarterly record. Amazing. That's more than seven per second.

Beat estimates by .03 cents.

Maturally, Qualcom kicked butt with hand set sales this high.

Tomorrow should be another good day.

This is where the hands start wringing, aye?

hmmm....

A sustained summer rally? Not often. Not with record oil. Not with war in the middle east. Surely not.

[atomicbob]

Qualcom down 10%. Go figure.:lol:

Mr. B only sparked the rally. I don't think it had much to do with what he said. It was the same o same o. But the market was really oversold and needed this pop. The S&P oscillator was at -4. It always bounces there.

A couple good days and it fizzles out.

That's my market call.

>disclaimer here<

:D

[atomicbob]

hmmmmm.....

Interesting up day. Last week's rally burnt out, but now another so soon?

http://tinyurl.com/jjl5l

Could it be confirmation? Or just more short covering?

Are the treasuries betting the fed is not going to raise in August?

[atomicbob]

Getting closer to a pause?

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B22F6762E%2DE588%2D4AAA%2D9226%2 DA829214F906A%7D&tool=1&siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

[CrockD]

Getting closer to a pause?

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B22F6762E%2DE588%2D4AAA%2D9226%2 DA829214F906A%7D&tool=1&siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

The market definitely seems to think so. We'll see though, nothings certain yet, in fact a total lack of certainty has been the feds hallmark over the last 4 months. I'd have more to say at the moment, but works been keeping me busy and I've been too busy sulking at the fact that I am unable to play any FPS games and my right leg is in a giant boot.....:eyecrazy: Okay, enough complaining :slap:

[atomicbob]

I had a feeling fed fund futures were about to turn negative on the next possible rate hike. So now the question is have they gone too far already? The market should see gains short term, but I'm not convinced they will last with a slowing economy. In my opinion, those who backed out of their funds at higher levels, may wish to capture that gain and see what happens. I haven't gone back in yet, but may go back in with half soon. I'd like to see what the rest of earnings season has in store.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The odds of an August interest rate hike fell below the 50-50 mark, according to the fed funds futures market, after the Federal Reserve's Beige Book survey indicated that the pace of economic growth has slowed. The survey also said, however, that pressure on prices from high gasoline prices persisted, and increased in some cases. The August fed fund futures contract was last up 0.03 at 94.68, which implies a 38% chance that the Fed will raise its target for overnight rates to 5.5% from 5.25% after its meeting on Aug. 8. Prior to the Beige Book's release, the odds were at 54%.

[atomicbob]

OMG....

Exxon Mobil made $10.4 billion in profit this quarter.

No wonder I'm so busy at work.

That's $8000.00 per minute for three months.

:hump: :mgeye-popping:

[atomicbob]

Cool market tool....

Work safe

http://www.smartmoney.com/marketmap/

Loads a little slow, but is a pretty powerful way to view the market.

Pretty hot market today.....GDP numbers came in low and everyone is excited.

Cept me. A short term bottom may be in place, but low GDP numbers only confirmed the economy is slowing. That's a bad thing even if it makes the Fed quit raising rates. Volume is pretty low too so I'm still out as far as funds go.

There are some great looking trades out there though.

[CrockD]

I'm also concerned about GDP. Sure the economy is slowing down, but the main driver of interest rate policy is inflation. If it turns out the economy is slowing down as a result of the increased interest rates, but inflation HASN'T moved, then we're doubly screwed. The next CPI & PPI release dates will be huge. If they're higher than expected then expect a giant hit on the market.

Those sector tools on Smartmoney are pretty cool Bob. I used to use them when I was in UConn's student managed fund (Usually to see a companies standing versus their competitor on a sector by sector basis). I never got a chance to really explore it too deeply though and I totally forgot about it until now. Nice Find!:thumbsup:

[atomicbob]

Some amazing and scary charts......and these are a year or so old.

http://www.idorfman.com/Charts/

Go ahead.....look through them.

(This is scary stuff. Take my word for it.)

:wallbash:

[atomicbob]

This market is junk. Can't even get a good short term bounce that will last.

In the toilet again.

Inflation worries continue.

http://tinyurl.com/lltlh

:thumbsdown:

[atomicbob]

Today's job report was weak and the Fed should pause next week. If they raise again it will kill the market, housing and all hopes of a Repulican winning an election (The Fed chairmen are all Rep).

I'm going back in with half. How's that for hedging. My choice here is a small or mid cap growth fund. I'm thinking they will outperform the Big cap stuff since the high quality plays haven't been so beaten up.

Any thoughts Crock?

Bonds took it in the shorts this morning.

[atomicbob]

My fund pick here at 16.65

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=frgtx&sid=0&o_symb=frgtx&freq=1&time=8

[atomicbob]

Selling off again. Amazingly weak.

I'll have to give this more thought.

[CrockD]

Today's job report was weak and the Fed should pause next week. If they raise again it will kill the market, housing and all hopes of a Repulican winning an election (The Fed chairmen are all Rep).

I'm going back in with half. How's that for hedging. My choice here is a small or mid cap growth fund. I'm thinking they will outperform the Big cap stuff since the high quality plays haven't been so beaten up.

Any thoughts Crock?

Bonds took it in the shorts this morning.

Work's got me around the throat at the moment so i'll have to be short. I think the long term prospects for stocks looks decent (not great but decent). The short term could see some gains spurred on by a fed decision to pause. Even though a lot of it is baked into the price already I think the fed actually doing it could spur a decent rally over the next month BUT it is summer time, traders are on vacation and volume is low so don't expect anything massive.

Bob's right though, there is a huge downside risk here. If the Fed does not pause the market will get beaten like a red headed step child!

All eyes on Tuesday.

[Saur]

THEY BETTER NOT RAISE RATES.

Ya know, if you price the markets in gold or silver, they've all crashed :O

<3 Saur

[CrockD]

2:15pm we'll know what the feds decision is.

For the short term investor you're looking for the fed to pause. Long term investors shouldn't care too much. The economy as a whole needs (and I hate to say it Bob) another interest rate hike. I don't think inflation can be curbed much more than it has been at the moment, but the main reason for raising rates right now is to continue to encourage Americans to do something they haven't done in 40 years...save money. Higher savings rates today means higher (and sustainable) growth and has positive implications on the social security crunch tomorrow.

[atomicbob]

2:15pm we'll know what the feds decision is.

For the short term investor you're looking for the fed to pause. Long term investors shouldn't care too much. The economy as a whole needs (and I hate to say it Bob) another interest rate hike. I don't think inflation can be curbed much more than it has been at the moment, but the main reason for raising rates right now is to continue to encourage Americans to do something they haven't done in 40 years...save money. Higher savings rates today means higher (and sustainable) growth and has positive implications on the social security crunch tomorrow.

Whoa! I'm not necesssarily wanting them to stop hiking. My commentary on the fed is just that. I'm more worried about inflation than the fed raising rates.

I want the market to tank further so I can reenter on the cheap. :yaya: Stocks were getting too expensive and there were few bargains left. That makes it hard to make any money trading (or investing). The farther down it goes, the more upside potential and less downside risk there is.

Nope....I say bring it to it's knees. I want pain. I want blood in the streets. I want investors jumping out of windows. When I see the market tank like that, I empty the bank and back up the truck. As long as the market is moving, I'm a happy camper. Going sideways sucks.

:thumbsup: :D

[CrockD]

Whoa! I'm not necesssarily wanting them to stop hiking. My commentary on the fed is just that. I'm more worried about inflation than the fed raising rates.

I want the market to tank further so I can reenter on the cheap. :yaya: Stocks were getting too expensive and there were few bargains left. That makes it hard to make any money trading (or investing). The farther down it goes, the more upside potential and less downside risk there is.

Nope....I say bring it to it's knees. I want pain. I want blood in the streets. I want investors jumping out of windows. When I see the market tank like that, I empty the bank and back up the truck. As long as the market is moving, I'm a happy camper. Going sideways sucks.

:thumbsup: :D

I thought you were more in the market than you are. It's probably a safe bet to be on the sidelines right now. Certainly didn't mean to label you an inflation lover.:beer: :)

45 minutes to go...I've got a meeting which should run over 2:15, i'll post my thoughts when I get back.

[CrockD]

They paused.

The market is all over the place. The dow was up 50, down 40, up 10, down 10 and is now down 27. Where is it going to end the day...I have absolutely no idea. They left the door open for more rate rises in the future (which is good) so we'll see how things go over the next few days.

[sir_digalot]

Whoa! I'm not necesssarily wanting them to stop hiking. My commentary on the fed is just that. I'm more worried about inflation than the fed raising rates.

I want the market to tank further so I can reenter on the cheap. Stocks were getting too expensive and there were few bargains left. That makes it hard to make any money trading (or investing). The farther down it goes, the more upside potential and less downside risk there is.

Nope....I say bring it to it's knees. I want pain. I want blood in the streets. I want investors jumping out of windows. When I see the market tank like that, I empty the bank and back up the truck. As long as the market is moving, I'm a happy camper. Going sideways sucks.


start buying puts against some of the big boys...

[atomicbob]

Inflation lover? LOL

Not me. Inflation makes my paycheck smaller.

I only have a couple positions right now. Two "dead pennies" that I'll sell for a tax write off later, and CELL that I bought a couple weeks ago at 12.33. It's 16.25 now and releases earning tonight. They should kickazz and I'll sell it.

Mostly, I'm hoarding cash waiting for a bottom to reload.

[atomicbob]

start buying puts against some of the big boys...

My trading account isn't big enough to play options. I think you have to have 25k in there, but I'm not sure.

It's a rich get richer rule that rich people invented to protect us poor people from ourselves.

[atomicbob]

CELL that I bought a couple weeks ago at 12.33. It's 16.25 now

16.70 and rising. Wish I had more.

:D

[CrockD]

16.70 and rising. Wish I had more.

:D

They'll announce after the close..fingers crossed for you!!

Earnings Gods Please Deliver!!! :bow:

[sir_digalot]

my company will allow options trading on margin as long as they are covered naked options do require a nice equity investment, but then again therisks are somewhat more well risky

[sir_digalot]

cell was 16.25 up one though a nasdaq is eligible for extended hours

[CrockD]

Cell met expectations and was trading roughly 16:24-16:45 after hours. Given the price appreciation you've seen on it lately Bob i'm sure you'll take it. :)

[sir_digalot]

i dunno i would wait till tommorow am, it might jump backup to 16.70 something.... depends on how much time you have to watch it

[atomicbob]

Works for me. Not a bad couple weeks "work"!

They actually preannounced last week, by surprise.

I thought they would do well considering MOT had blow out earnings. CELL distributes their stuff. 1+1 ya know.

But, back to the buy and hold argument....

I had a few thousand shares of CELL waaaaayy back at .25, = $750.00

pre pre pre pre split....

Right after they had the 1:7 reverse split.....see it?

http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b393/atomicbob/cell.jpg

I sold it for a buck and change thinking I'd made out.

Had I just kept it....I'd have 18225 shares worth $ 298,890.00 today

damn.

I knew it was bad but until today never did the calculation.

:icon_cry:

Maybe I figured that wrong.

[sir_digalot]

well aftyer that post your sig icon is appropriate..

there was a guy at work, one of our clients he deals strickly with complex options, well in 2 of his accounts last week he had a total of about 2 million in equity, i have no clue what happened but three days ago he had $568 after margin calls.... ouch...

but what is funnier today he was back around the 200,000 mark.... talk about swings and roundabouts....

[atomicbob]

HA! I drive myself half crazy sometimes.

:D

[atomicbob]

Ok, you financial wizards.....

Get a load of this.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=mncs&sid=0&o_symb=mncs&freq=1&time=8

No company, no employees, no patents, no nothing. Only a "plan".

Yet it trades up every day on substantial volume.

I should buy some just to make it go down.

:yaya:

[atomicbob]

Soft PPI number was well accepted this morning. Could mean inflation is not as bad as anticipated and a soft landing is intact. Or not. It's only one month. A bit of bad data and things could tank again.

That said, I think it's not a bad time to renter the funds. The S&P chart has broken into an uptrend look and barring any crappy data in the next month or so, or another hike, this could be the start of the fall rally. I'd hate for someone to miss that if it happens.

I'm thinking this is about the same level as loop got out, so even if you didn't pick off any leverage, at least you won't miss any gains. Worst case, you missed out on some scary times in the safety of a money market.

At some point, it will time to take it back off the table with some big gains, and we'll try again to capture the downside.

The small and midcap growth funds should realize the biggest gains if the rally holds. Large cap stuff and dividend funds are all high already because people have run there for safety.

disclaimer disclaimer disclaimer.

[atomicbob]

By the way, I stopped out of CELL at 16. Caching.

And I bought some of that silly MNCS just to see how long it keeps going up.

[loopcycle]

dow hits 12,000. but is that reflective of a healthy economy?
was reading some threads linked to bob's site that indicate not.
whats the prevailing opinion from our experienced wih economic hawks?
* bump

[atomicbob]

Well, the Dow hitting 12k is a great thing. It actually did it faster than I thought it would when I posted about getting back in to catch the fall rally.


That said, I think it's not a bad time to renter the funds. The S&P chart has broken into an uptrend look and barring any crappy data in the next month or so, or another hike, this could be the start of the fall rally. I'd hate for someone to miss that if it happens.

I'm thinking this is about the same level as loop got out, so even if you didn't pick off any leverage, at least you won't miss any gains. Worst case, you missed out on some scary times in the safety of a money market.

At some point, it will time to take it back off the table with some big gains, and we'll try again to capture the downside.

But the DOW, is just the DOW and represents only 30 stocks. Big ones, but just 30. Yesterday, IBM had a great earnings release and its move accounted for 31 point of the DOW gains, all by itself.

The S&P is the real issue for most 401k investors, and it's rising just fine.

Oil going down was the key IMO. Plus, investors are now poopooing inflation risk and higher interest rates.

There are more gains to come in the coming weeks, but there is a top up here somewhere. Right now, the momentum hedge funds are loading up on anything that's working and that spells higher prices. No need to fear yet....I'm only a little cautious.

More of my speculation later.

I have more to say, but have to run.

[CrockD]

This is not really a Stock Market comment, but I didn't feel like starting a new thread.

Milton Friedman, perhaps the most important economist of the 20th century and nobel laureate died today at 94 years old. Rest in Peace Dr. Friedman.

[sir_digalot]

Ok, you financial wizards.....

Get a load of this.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=mncs&sid=0&o_symb=mncs&freq=1&time=8

No company, no employees, no patents, no nothing. Only a "plan".

Yet it trades up every day on substantial volume.

I should buy some just to make it go down.

:yaya:


that sounds like the dot com companies in the 90's and a few of the games producers in the 80's before the games crash....